Monday, May 24, 2010

Moody's voices concerns over Gulf property oversupply

The supply-demand imbalance remains a key driver of the continued negative outlook for the property industry in the Arabian Gulf, Moody's Investors Service said in a new report on Monday. The negative outlook reflects the rating agency's view of fundamental credit conditions in the industry over the next 12-18 months.
"The supply-demand imbalance in commercial property and to some degree in residential units, depending on the city or country, is likely to grow worse as vast supply meets slack demand and is a major driver of our negative outlook," said Martin Kohlhase, author of the report.
In the report, Moody's noted that the other drivers of the outlook remain the same as in 2009, namely funding and the preservation of cash, which includes potential disposals of non-core assets, cash collection and debt standstill agreements.
Moody's said it believes that these factors will remain in place for the rest of 2010.
The rating agency further said that it has downgraded the ratings of all GCC issuers with real estate exposure over the past 12 months.
However, although Moody's industry outlook for the region as a whole is negative, it added that significant differences continued to exist across the region, with Saudi Arabia seen as the brightest spot of the six GCC countries.
"The large, growing and young population of this Kingdom continues to support the local residential market," said Kohlhase. "Furthermore, rent and sale prices have remained stable in prime areas, while limited price correction has been witnessed on the outskirts."
The rating agency said that several factors could prompt a revision of the outlook to stable, including government spending for public infrastructure work, government intervention, a shortage of low- and middle-income housing and international expansion. However, we do not envisage moving to a stable outlook in the near term," added Kohlhase.
Last month, Jones Lang Lasalle said Dubai's real estate sector will not see a recovery until 2011 at the earliest due to an oversupply of properties.In its latest report on the emirate's homes market, which has seen price falls of more than 50 percent in some areas from peaks on summer 2008, the firm said a total of 22,000 units were expected to be completed this year.
Its study of Q1 prices also saw a further 25,000 units coming online in 2011, bringing the total residential stock to about 320,000 by the end of 2011.

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